estimated approval among independents, the swing bloc in competitive districts
COMPETITIVE HOUSE DISTRICTS
45+
seats rated toss-up or lean by forecasters heading into 2026 midterms
Historical midterm elections where an ongoing war was the dominant voter issue. Each bar represents net House seats lost by the president's party.
KEY QUESTIONS
Voter sentiment figures are poll aggregates consistent with article framing and should be treated as illustrative estimates, not certified polling results. House seat-loss figures are historical records per the U.S. House History Office. 2026 outcomes remain pending.